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Resurgent Republic: Whose Message Wins? Part 3

While voters increasingly recognize the necessity of reform, the two parties are drawn into a Medicare messaging battle.

Resurgent Republic’s recent message comparisons show Republicans with a surprising advantage as 48% believe by making small changes now, “we can preserve and protect this important program for future generations.”

Resurgent Republic: Whose Message Wins? Part 2

When testing competing messages on taxes, 52% of voters, including 54% of Independents contest the idea of tax increases on the wealthy, believing “we will never tax our way out of the deficit” but rather need true tax reform.

Resurgent Republic also tested the fairness argument rooted in current tax messaging, asking voters what constitutes fairness.  In pondering this, a strong 60% said fairness is NOT making sure the wealthy pay their fair share, but rather “making sure everyone pays their fair share, and no one gets bailouts, preferential treatment, or special favors from political cronies.”

Resurgent Republic: Whose Message Wins? Part 1

Resurgent Republic’s latest survey performs a series of messages tests on fairness and fiscal issues, asking voters to weigh options and pick a side.  The question then is, whose message wins?

When reflecting on the President’s economic plan, the data confirms voter frustration towards Obama’s economic policies as 55%, including 63% of Independents, say his economic plan is “not working” and it’s time to try something else.

In addition, these attitudes stem from personal experience and hardship as 75% say they are about the same (36%) or worse off (39%) than they were four years ago when Obama took office.

Politico’s Battleground: Trust On the Issues

According to Politico’s recent Battleground survey, voters trust Republicans in Congress more than Democrats when it comes to jobs, the economy, and are split when it comes sharing your values.

Not surprisingly, Democrats lead on Healthcare and Social Security/Medicare. What IS surprising is seniors choose the GOP on Healthcare by a 10-pt spread and only give Democrats a 1-pt advantage on Medicare & Social Security.

Politico’s Battleground: Obama on Taxes

As the debate over President Obama’s proposed tax increases heats up, Politico’s new Battleground Poll asks voters some intriguing questions that demonstrate why the President struggles to build popular support for higher taxes on anyone.

First, voters were asked what they believe Obama “should” do with additional tax revenue were he to get it.  Voters were then asked what they believe he actually “would” do with the money.  The results demonstrate a loss of faith in the President’s motives.  While an overwhelming 71% say the President should use the revenue to “help pay down [the] debt and deficit,” 61% believe he would actually use it to increase spending.

Democracy Corps: Voters Choose GOP on the Economy

In Sunday’s Washington Post, Dan Balz notes that President Obama’s true enemy is not necessarily Mitt Romney rather, “Obama’s biggest opponent may be an economy that is still struggling to gain the kind of momentum that will convince voters that the recession is truly over.”¹

Given Obama and House Democrats’ track record, Democracy Corps shows more voters believe Republicans and Romney will do a better job handling our economic future as Republicans sit net positive at +6 over Democrats and Romney over-performs Obama by 7 pts.

“What [Obama] needs is an economy on the mend and a belief among the voters that he has a second-term agenda and the leadership to take care of unfinished business.”¹ Yet, the data suggests voters are losing hope.

Democracy Corps: The Real Story, Part 3

Obamacare continues to haunt the President and his Congressional Democrats as a 49% plurality in battleground districts has a negative opinion of the health care reform law.  Interestingly, Obamacare is most unpopular in competitive Democrat-held seats as the law flops 32% to 51%, a net negative spread of 19-pts.

In 2010, House Democrats lost a historic 63 seats fueled by anger at Obamacare.  The bad news for Democrats is that Obamacare’s numbers are virtually identical today as they were in October 2010, according to NBC/WSJ.

Democracy Corps: The Real Story, Part 2

More inconvenient data from Democracy Corps’ battleground poll.

When looking at issues, voters prefer Republicans over Democrats on the economy, gas prices and come within the margin of error on Social Security and Medicare, the bedrock Democrat issue.  Furthermore, the numbers emerging from the competitive Democrat seats show Democratic Battleground districts in equal or worse shape as the spread tilts slightly more in favor of Republicans than the total sample.

In addition, new data from Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Co Research (R) shows Romney ahead of Obama, 46% to 39% when it comes to voters’ opinion on who has “the best experience to fix the economy.”

Democracy Corps: The Real Story, Part 1

The good folks of Democracy Corps are out with a new battleground poll.  They titled it “Democrats Gaining in Battleground”, so that’s how the media dutifully reported it.  One problem: the data doesn’t support this conclusion.

Democracy Corps’ Battleground survey sampled 1,500 likely voters in 56 Republican-held and 23 Democrat-held “Battleground” districts.  Of these 56 Republican seats, 41 of them were won by Obama in 2008, yet today he is upside-down with a net negative approval rating of 45%/51% respectively.

Additionally, named Republican Incumbents are leading by an average of 6 percent over a generic Democrat on the ballot test.

CNN: On the Presidential Ballot

New numbers from CNN show President Obama sitting comfortably 9-points ahead of Romney on the Presidential Ballot among registered voters.  Other recent polls, however, mirror a toss-up as Romney averages a 1-point lead over Obama.

So, what’s the catch?

Let’s start with basic math as pointed out by HotAir.

When looking at the motivation behind the Presidential vote, CNN is kind enough to tell us the amount of “voters” planning to vote for each, 484 for Obama and 476 for Romney.  These two numbers add up to a total of 960 voters. Herein lies the first problem as this total is more than the number of registered voters sampled, meaning we can only assume instead this refers to the full 1,015 adult sample.  Second, using the adult sample, according to these numbers, this mere 8 person difference would yield a 48% Obama; 47% Romney Presidential ballot among adults, yet CNN shows it at 53% Obama; 41% Romney.

Clearly, some weighting occurred, but since CNN fails to provide a demographic and/or party breakdown, one has no way of knowing where and why.

In conclusion, lacking any type of suitable transparency, “this poll should be treated as utter fantasy.”¹

Kaiser: On the Second Anniversary of Obamacare

Nearly two years later, the historic and controversial piece of healthcare legislation known as Obamacare is neither out of sight nor out of mind for the American people.  Over the past two years, the empty promises of Obamacare have run into a harsh reality, leaving 83% of Americans saying they and their family have not “personally benefited from the health reform law.”  However, what they do believe is Obamacare has not lowered prescription drug costs for seniors or eliminated costs for preventive services but instead has increased the federal budget deficit and increased the price of health insurance.

WaPo/ABC: Where Does Obama Stand?

New data from Washington Post/ABC shows President Obama’s approval rating slipping as he hits 46%, the lowest rating this year.  Furthermore, the enthusiasm gap tilts a significant 11 pts against Obama as 39% say they “strongly disapprove."

Likewise, concerning his handling of the economy, Obama has seen a net negative movement of 12 points over the past month.  And, regarding the hot topic of gas prices, Obama’s drowning at a startling -39 pts.

Historically, in the final poll before the 2010 midterm elections when Democrats lost 63 seats in the House, Obama found himself in better shape sitting right side up at 50%/45% on his job approval as President of the United States and only 10 pts in the red on the economy versus his -21 pts today.

CBS News: Pain at the Pump

Gas prices continue to muster negative attention and further fuel pessimistic attitudes according to a new data from CBS as a 67% majority says it has caused financial hardship.  In addition, Americans see no light at the end of the tunnel as nearly 9 in 10 (86%) believe prices will rise.  And, while blame regarding the high cost of gas is widespread, 54% say President Obama “can do a lot” about it.

USA Today/Gallup: On Healthcare

“The health care overhaul that President Obama intended to be the signature achievement of his first term instead has become a significant problem in his bid for a second one…And after years of promising that we would learn to like Obamacare, the president is now confronted with a harsh electoral reality”: most do not.¹

Data from yesterday’s USA Today/Gallup battleground poll shows a majority standing opposed to Obamacare as 53% of swing state voters say it’s a “bad thing” Congress passed this law.  Furthermore, a strong 42% believe the law will negatively affect their family, saying it will make things “worse.” Then, in case these numbers aren’t bad enough, there’s the individual mandate, which nearly 8 in 10 voters (76%) declare unconstitutional.

Fox News: On the American Dream

Voters are fairly evenly divided when pondering what kind of president will best cultivate an atmosphere in which the American Dream thrives as 41% say it’s more likely under a Democratic president compared to 36% who say a Republican.   Independents however, while largely undecided, lean towards a Republican president 35% to 24% respectively.  On the other hand, women favor a Democrat by a 45% to 33% margin.

Fox News: Insider V. Outsider

Voters seemingly want to disrupt the Washington status quo as a 50% majority believes an outsider, “who can shake things up” can do a better job of making things work in Washington.  Among Independents, this number spikes to 57%, a net movement of 16-points.

ABC/Washington Post: Dubious

Recent data from ABC/WaPo suggests the pendulum has finally swung back in Obama’s favor, placing him back where he needs to be -- sitting 9 points ahead of Romney.  However, this poll proves to be one of the most dubious polls of the cycle to date.  Here’s why.

One, again, ABC/WaPo decides to sample adults rather than strictly likely voters.  “Why anyone is polling adults in the middle of an ongoing primary is a complete mystery.”¹

Two, ABC/WaPo fails to provide a party breakdown.  Thus, one has no way of knowing whether the sample is skewed to favor one party over another.

Three, before the ballot test, ABC/WaPo strategically asks a series of questions about Romney, all alluding to him as a flawed and questionable candidate.  One can imagine how the ballot would have fared if instead, they first asked about Obamacare, the Stimulus, and our failing economy.²

While some attempt to link this poll to a State of the Union bump, it is linked more to loaded data and flawed methodology.

CNN: Voters’ Complex Views of President Obama

While most Americans seem to think Obama has the qualities needed to be a President and is “in touch with” the pains “ordinary Americans” face on a day to day basis, they seem less certain about his ability to get the economy back on its feet (58%). Likewise, they seem to think he’s a typical politician as 56% say he “changes his position on issues for political reasons.”

WaPo/ABC: Obama & His Accomplishments

In reflecting on Obama’s past three years in office, a 52% majority believe the President has not accomplished much at all.  More importantly, of this 52%, most seem to believe he has no one to blame but himself as 56% say Obama, himself, is “mainly responsible.”

WaPo/ABC: On Taxes

Following the payroll tax cuts debate, Republicans find themselves back where they need and ought to be on taxes as more Americans trust Republicans over Obama to do a better job handling taxes by a 42% to 40% margin.  This is a net positive movement of 7-points over the past month.

Democracy Corps: You call this the “battleground”?

Last Friday, the Democratic polling firm Democracy Corps released their new House Battleground Poll.  The big news is that there is not a single House Democrat in danger of losing his/her seat.  All 60 “battleground” districts are held by a Republican Member of Congress. The complete absence of competitive Democratic districts is welcome, though stunning news to Democrats who have been eaten alive in redistricting (Barrow, Shuler, Kissell, McIntrye, et al) or those who have decided to retire or run for another office (Ross, Boren, Costello, Donnelly).

Media reports hype sagging “re-elect” numbers from the survey.  However, what goes unnoticed is that Democracy Corps’ re-elect question is written in a way that renders the results virtually meaningless.  Instead of asking the standard, “Do you feel (House Incumbent) deserves re-election?” they garnish the question with an anti-Washington sentiment posing an option of electing someone new to “fix Washington.”  Given the extreme discontent with Washington on both sides of the aisle, of course that option looks more appealing.

Despite the negative implications from Democracy Corps, Republican incumbent job approval has seen a net positive movement of 11-points since September.

Today’s Politico: Misleading Congressional Re-elect Numbers

A new headline from Politico boasts “3/4 say don’t reelect Congress,” according to today’s poll release from Gallup.  What the headline fails to capture however, is 53% of voters say their own U.S. Representative does deserve reelection.¹ Overall, that’s a net positive movement of 70-points in favor of the Incumbent when you personalize the question, something hardly to be overlooked.

Gallup: Job Creation Index

Dropping from 9% in October, after Friday’s announced 8.6% November unemployment rate, Obama House DC Democrats boast of an improving jobs situation and a strengthening economy.  However, data from Gallup suggests the opposite.

With such a sharp decline in unemployment, Gallup’s Job Creation Index “should have shown substantial improvement…” Furthermore, “jobless claims [should have shown] a substantial decline as unemployment tumbled.”  However, instead Gallup shows “job market conditions…flat in November, as…[it] remained at +14, similar to the range seen since May.”

With this, “it appears that the real U.S. jobs situation did not change in November.”  In fact, Gallup suggests this drop in unemployment has more negative inclinations for the economy and Americans’ economic outlook than positive ones.  Realistically, “the sharp decline in the workforce…may be more of a reflection of the large number of Americans who have given up looking for work…than of any improvement in job market conditions.”

Gallup: Obama Approval in Historical Context

Averaging a 43% approval rating over the past month, Obama’s earned himself “the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history.”¹

Furthermore, throughout his term Obama has an average approval rating of 49%.  An average of which only three Presidents prior have earned a lower rating: Carter, Ford, and Truman.

More importantly, over the past year, while his approval rating has dropped “among all six partisan/ideology groups,” Obama has seen his “steepest” decline among “pure Independents,” who in January held a 40% approval rating of the President.  Today, that rating has plummeted to a mere 30%.

Gallup: Obamacare Today

As it reaches the steps of the Supreme Court, Obamacare continues to be a compelling issue in the minds of voters as they “tilt toward favoring repeal of [the] health care law.”

Skeptical of government-run anything, a strong 56% of voters prefer a health care system based on private insurance.¹

NBC/WSJ: Obama & Expectations

Recent NBC/Wall Street Journal polling shows the Obama Administration falling short of Americans’ expectations on key fiscal issues facing our country.  Concerning the economy and the deficit, Obama finds himself worse off than President Bush was in 2004.

Fox News: Obama, the Economy, & Women

New data from Fox News show 52% of voters say President Obama’s “ideas are good, but he hasn’t been able to get them implemented.”  Among women, this number spikes to 60%.

53% of voters say Obama “understands the economic pain many everyday Americans are going through.”  Again, this number strengthens among women (59%). However, its split among Independents as a 50% majority say, “no,” he does not.

Quinnipiac: Generic Ballot & Party ID

Today’s Quinnipiac poll conveyed outlier numbers on the generic congressional ballot test, as Democrats held an 8-point lead over Republicans.  A month ago however, Quinnipiac showed the ballot tied at 39%.

Here’s what changed.

When you look at party identification for Quinnipiac’s October survey, Democrats hold a +3 advantage over Republicans as 31% identify themselves as Democrats and 28% identify themselves as Republicans.  In their November survey, Quinnipiac curiously boosted the Democratic edge by +10 on party identification.

Put simply, Quinnipiac oversampled Democrats. Real Clear Politics’ generic ballot average of all polls shows Democrats at +1.8%.

CBS News: On the Economy

Public opinion regarding blame for the “condition of the economy” is widespread according to data from CBS News as no one entity garners most of the blame.  While some responsibility has shifted since June, the Bush Administration still gathers more blame than the Obama Administration.  However, Americans tend to lean right in their view of how to get the economy moving as 47% say “cutting taxes to encourage investment” is the most effect way versus “spending more money to create jobs” (37%).

Concerning taxes, the taxing-the-rich argument remains popular as 64% say taxes on millionaires should be increased in order to lower the deficit, including 65% of Independents.

Polling the PPP Way

Most poll to obtain objective data and reach a conclusion. Others poll to obtain data that justifies a pre-determined conclusion.

Regarding today’s PPP press release on selected data from a recent survey, please note the following:

1. PPP altered the industry-standard language for determining an incumbent’s re-election strength.  The alternative choice for the voter is always asked as “is it time for a new person?”  PPP changed it to “prefer someone else?”  Those with a rudimentary understanding of polling recognize the material impact this language will have on the data.  They didn’t change the language for no reason.

2. PPP did not release or did not care to test President Obama’s job approval in these districts. In the alternate universe of PPP, presidential re-election cycles are not a referendum on the President’s handling of the economy.  This would come as a shock to any political science major in America.

3. Shockingly, PPP assumes you’re too dumb to know that a low-to-mid 40s re-election score for an incumbent Member of Congress is actually quite good.   In the wave of 2010, virtually no Democrats lost with a re-elect number above 40%.   Furthermore, these re-elect numbers are even more impressive given that the Republicans currently represent only a portion of the voters polled due to redistricting.  For example, 75% of Rep. Tim Johnson’s district is new.

4. The Democratic, though reputable, polling operation of Democracy Corps recently conducted a poll in 60 districts held by Republicans that largely went for Obama in 2008.  That poll found that named incumbent Republican Member of Congress beat a generic Democratic challenger by 9%.  Among independents, the spread skyrockets to 32% for the Republican.  Now, that is newsworthy and significant data, Democratic no less.

Nice try, PPP.  Try harder (and smarter) next time.

Fox News: On Taxes

With talk of possible tax increases, Fox News questioned voters on whether they thought “raising taxes in an economic downturn is a good idea or bad idea,” finding a strong 66% majority believing it’s a bad idea.  Furthermore, among those earning less than $50,000 annually, voters stand overwhelmingly opposed with 70% rejecting the notion and only 23% supporting it.

More importantly, most voters seem skeptical of the actual intentions behind tax increases and call the bluff as 61% say tax increases would primarily “fund more government spending” versus being used to decrease the deficit.  Among Independents, this number increases to 66%.

Daily Kos: Busted

This week’s State of the Nation poll by Daily Kos/SEIU boasts some rather outlandish numbers.  In fact, one might even be lead to believe Obama is on the upswing despite all evidence and polling data to the contrary. Multiple polls in the last month show quite the opposite.

Daily Kos shows President Obama sitting at a net negative of minus 6 on job approval.  Evidence that Kos juiced the poll is found among Independents where they show him net positive at plus 1.  Quinnipiac, Fox, CNN, and Marist all show Obama’s job approval rating significantly underwater among Independents with net negative numbers in the double digits.

Generic Congressional Ballot: What You Should Know

Two new polls highlighted in today’s Politico Morning Score resurrected a “hope that the House might be in play next November” for Democrats.¹ In Reuters/Ipsos and NBC/Wall Street Journal Democrats lead Republicans on the generic congressional ballot and generic congressional-control ballot by 8% and 4% respectively.

However, before jumping to conclusions, it’s important to note a few things.

One, the generic ballot itself is extremely volatile.  One month Republicans might be leading only to find Democrats polling ahead the following month.

Second, looking historically at the generic congressional control question, in NBC/WSJ’s last poll before the 2010 Congressional Elections, voters still said they preferred a “Democratic-controlled Congress” by a 46% to 44% margin, yet Republicans picked up a record 63 seats.

Battleground vs. The Hill

Conversely, data from a recent Battleground poll shows Republicans in Congress winning the jobs debate against both President Obama and Democrats alike.

Gallup: Republicans Seen as More Capable of Handling Most Important Problem

When asked which political party they believe to do a better job handling the problem most important to them, the GOP sits at a 7 point advantage over Democrats in a recent poll from Gallup.  This is “one of the biggest [advantages] on the question since 1956” according to The Hill.¹

Furthermore, concerning which political party they believe will “do a better job of keeping the country prosperous,” Republicans hold a strong 9 point lead over Democrats, a net positive gain of 9 points over the past 3 years. ²

The Hill: Obama, Bush, & the Economy

While Americans still put more blame on Bush for our current economic conditions, they are beginning to hold Obama in equal standing as a 53% majority feel President Obama “bears significant blame.”¹ Among Independents, Obama and Bush are nearly within the margin of error.

More importantly, since July of 2009, Obama’s numbers have shifted 21 points against him, while Bush has seen a 9 point movement in his favor.

Obama’s Jobs Plan: Public Opinion Strategies V. Gallup

While a recent Gallup poll gushes, “Americans favor almost all proposals in Obama’s jobs plan,” we must unpack this a bit.

In conducting this survey, Gallup used the White House-tested characterizations of various aspects of the proposal, which has the effect of painting the whole plan in an entirely too positive light. 

For example, instead of simply asking whether Americans favor or oppose more government spending, they tested “providing additional funds to hire teachers, police officers, and firefighters” and “providing additional funds for public works projects, including making repairs to more than 30,000 schools.”  That messaging tests well to absolutely no one’s surprise.  They then do the same thing with taxes.

Turning to Public Opinion Strategies, when they tested competing perspectives on the plan’s tax proposals for example, the results were much different.  And far more representative of America’s opinion on the fundamental differences driving our political debate.

Quinnipiac: Democratic Party V. The Tea Party

Despite Democrats’ relentless attacks on Tea Party activists, Quinnipiac’s last poll shows the Democratic Party having a higher unfavorable rating than the Tea Party with a negative spread of -16 and -13 respectively.  Among Independents, Democratic ratings slip even further to a dire -27, while the Tea Party sits at -14.

POLLSTER: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., for Quinnipiac University

DATE: Conducted 8/16-27/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 2,730 RVs; MoE ± 1.9%

SOURCE: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1640

Battleground Poll: Priorities for Super Committee in Balancing Budget

Public opinion for what should be the committee’s top priority in balancing the budget is relatively split as 25% say closing tax loopholes/tax reform is most important, 29% put priority on cutting spending, 28% want to see a focus on raising taxes on wealthy/corporations, and another 11% see entitlement spending reform as most significant.

POLLSTER: Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners for Politico/GWU

DATE: Conducted 8/28-31/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Registered LVs; MoE ± 3.1%

SOURCE: http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_090611_battlegroundpoll_results.html

Today’s Democracy Corps: Republican Members +9 on 2012 Congressional Ballot

Surveyed in 60 districts, most of which Obama won in 2008, today’s release from Democracy Corps shows Republican Members sitting 9-points ahead of the generic democrat on the 2012 Congressional ballot.  Among Independents, this spread skyrockets to a 32-point advantage for the GOP.

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Fox News: Who’s Responsible for the Nation’s Economy?

Concerning who’s responsible for our nation’s economic conditions, the blame game is very wide spread.  A majority of voters, however, give “lawmakers in Washington who are unwilling to compromise” “a great deal” of responsibility for the current state of our economy.

POLLSTER: Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News

DATE: Conducted 8/29-31/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 911 LVs; MoE ± 3.0

SOURCE: http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/politics/2011/09/01/fox-news-poll-60-disapprove-president-obama-on-job-creation/

WaPo/ABC News: Majority Prefer Smaller Government

Smaller government seems to be the consensus as majority (56%) of Americans say they favor “smaller government with fewer services” over “larger government with more services.”

Approval Ratings: In Historical Context

While the media boasts the GOP is worse off or at least as bad as Obama with their approval rating, there’s a few things you should know.

Republican Ratings:

Historically, Republicans never have a strong approval or image rating.  Pew’s tracking over the past two and a half years shows Republicans sitting at an average approval/disapproval rating of 28% to 57%, and since January of 1994, NBC/Wall Street Journal shows the GOP averaging a positive/negative image rating of 33% to 42%. 

To put things in perspective, in AP’s final poll before the 2010 Congressional Elections, Republicans were upside-down 28%/72% with a negative image rating of 33% to 41%.  Yet, despite dire ratings, the GOP still won 63 seats and took back the House. 

Democrat Ratings:

NBC/WSJ: Concerning Numbers for Congress

While numbers continue to worsen for Obama, Congress does not fare any better as only 13% approve of their job performance.

Furthermore, 54% of Americans say they would vote to defeat and replace every single member of Congress, including their own representative if it was an option.

POLLSTER: NBC News/Wall Street Journal

DATE: Conducted 8/27-31/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Adults; MoE ± 3.1

SOURCE: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Correct_NBCWSJ_poll.pdf

This Week’s Polls: No Hope and Change for Obama?

Looking to the future, this week’s polls show no sign of rebound for President Obama as 54% of Americans believe this set-back is more long-term and “unlikely to get better” according to new data from NBC/Wall Street Journal.

This poll also showed 63% shaky in their confidence that Obama has “the right set of goals and policies to be President of the United States.”  When turning to the economy, this number increases to 68%.

Furthermore, while the GOP is gaining more trust on jobs and the economy, Obama’s underwater on both according to yesterday’s Battleground Poll.

Lastly, today’s numbers from Resurgent Republic shows 50% of voters believe Obama’s policies have “made things worse for most Americans,” including 57% of Independents.  And, perhaps more rattling, 60% say Obama turned out to be a “weaker leader” than they expected.

POLLSTER: NBC News/Wall Street Journal

DATE: Conducted 8/27-31/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Adults;MoE ± 3.1

SOURCE: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Correct_NBCWSJ_poll.pdf

POLLSTER: Tarrance Group & Lake Research Partners for Politico and the George Washington University

DATE: Conducted 8/28-9/1/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 RVs (likely); MoE ± 3.1

SOURCE: Politico; http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_090611_battlegroundpoll_results.html

POLLSTER: Ayres, McHenry & Associates, Inc for Resurgent Republic

DATE: Conducted 8/28-31/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 RVs; MoE ± 3.1

SOURCE: The Fix; http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/system/assets/427/original/RR_August_Presentation.pdf

Today’s Polls: More Prefer a Republican Congress

In looking ahead to the 2012 Congressional elections, up 3-points since June, more Americans now prefer a Congress controlled by Republicans than a Congress controlled by Democrats (47% to 41%) according to today’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

In addition, concerning the two most important issues facing our country, jobs and the economy, additional data released by Politico shows voters believe Republicans will do a better job handling both.

POLLSTER: NBC News/Wall Street Journal

DATE: Conducted 8/27-31/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Adults; MoE ± 3.1

SOURCE: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/Correct_NBCWSJ_poll.pdf

POLLSTER: Tarrance Group & Lake Research Partners for Politico and the George Washington University

DATE: Conducted 8/28-9/1/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 RVs (likely); MoE ± 3.1

SOURCE: Politico; http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_090611_battlegroundpoll_results.html

Daily Kos/SEIU Poll: More Records for Obama

“Obama has hit a record low approval rating 3 weeks in a row now.…[going] from 43/53 to 42/53 to 42/54” in this week’s poll.¹  More importantly, Obama’s struggling to stay right-side-up among some of his key demographics, finding himself in the red among union households, young adults, and those bringing in less than 30k annually.

POLLSTER: Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos/SEIU

DATE: Conducted 8/25-28/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 RVs; MoE ± 3.1

SOURCE: publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com

Article: ¹http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/08/obama-keeps-hitting-record-lows.html

Full Questionnaire: http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/8/25

Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: “Obamacare support at all time low”

Public support for Obamacare has hit a record low according to Kaiser’s new Health Tracking Poll for August as only 39% of Americans have a favorable view.  Furthermore, the law has tied its year low of 33% among Independents.  And, even among its own party, Obamacare is losing popularity as democratic support has plummeted to 60%, down 12-points since May. 

POLLSTER: Kaiser Health tracking Poll

DATE: Conducted 8/10-15/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,201 Adults;18±;  MoE ± 3.0

SOURCE: pollwatchdaily.com

http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8217-T.pdf

AP/GfK Poll: Obama & “Ordinary Americans”

Today’s Associated Press-GfK poll pointed to a developing empathy problem for President Obama as 47% give him poor ratings on understanding the problems of ordinary Americans, up from 37% in May.  Furthermore, another 45% are shaky on whether Obama “cares about people like [them],” an 8-pt increase since May.

While he remains right side up overall, it appears more Americans feel Obama is becoming out of touch with the American people.

POLLSTER: Conducted GfK Roper Public Affairs for Associated Press

DATE: Conducted 8/18-22/2011

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,001 Adults; 18±; MoE ± 4.1 at 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: Google; http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK%20Poll%20Aug%202011%20Topline_ObamaEconomy.pdf

WaPo Poll: Obama’s Success & American Confidence:

An overwhelming 71% of Americans believe President Obama has been unsuccessful in addressing “the major problems facing the country” according to Washington Post’s most recent poll.

Furthermore, American confidence in Washington’s ability to solve economic problems continues to slip away as a full 73% say when government tries to address an economic problem, they are not confident that problem will actually be solved.

That’s approximately 3 out of 4 people who believe government is incapable of reconciling our economic concerns.

POLLSTER: conducted by Abt-SRBI for Washington Post

DATE: conducted 8/9/2011

SAMPLE: sampled 601 Adults; MoE ± 4.5

SOURCE: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_080911.html

McLaughlin & Associates: Obama Sinking in Florida

The current state of the economy continues to be a thorn in Obama’s side as 54% of Floridians say his policies have “hurt Florida’s economy.”

Furthermore, when asked if “President Obama and other politicians should stop attacking the job creators such as corporations, Wall Street and oil companies and, instead, they should be looking to work with and compromise with business leaders to create jobs and improve the economy,” a strong 71% agreed, gathering majority support from both parties.

POLLSTER: McLaughlin & Associates for Associated Industries of Florida

DATE: conducted 8/8-9/2011 (released 8/18/2011)

SAMPLE: 600 likely general election voters

SOURCE: saintpetersblog.com

Article: http://saintpetersblog.com/2011/08/associated-industries-poll-84-of-floridians-believe-county-is-on-the-wrong-track/

Questionnaire/Graphs: http://aif.com/press_release/2011/FL_AIF_President_Poll_Release_Slides_08-17-11_FINAL.pdf

Public Policy/Democracy Corps: Generic Congressional Ballot

The latest poll from Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling has triggered recent headlines flaunting a comfortable 7-point lead for Democrats on the 2012 generic congressional ballot. However, today’s release from Democracy Corps says not so fast, showing Republicans ahead of Democrats on the generic ballot 47% to 46% respectively.

Furthermore, Public Policy polled registered voters and curiously, the link to their raw polling data is still not working 2 days later, while Democracy Corps polled actual likely voters and is completely transparent.

POLLSTER: Daily Kos/SEIU/Public Policy Polling

DATE: Conducted 8/4-7/2011

SAMPLE: 1,000 Registered Voters; MoE +/- 3.1

SOURCE: DailyKos.com

POLLSTER: Greenburg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps

DATE: Conducted 8/6-10/2011

SAMPLE: 1,481 Likely Voters (1,000 weighted); MoE +/- 2.5

SOURCE: DemocracyCorps.com

CBS/New York Times: 84% Unhappy with Washington

Recent data from CBS/New York Times’ vividly portrays just how unhappy Americans are with the way things are going in Washington as 56% say they are dissatisfied and another 28% say they are angry.  That’s a full 84% who are discontent and displeased with Washington’s behavior.

POLLSTER: CBS/New York Times

DATE: conducted 8/2-3/2011

SAMPLE: 960 Adult; MoE +/- 3.0

SOURCE: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/08/05/us/politics/20110805_Poll-docs.html?ref=politics

PEW Poll: Obama & Democrats Losing Their Base:

In Monday’s address regarding the United States’ recent credit downgrade, President Obama spoke to his “renewed focus on employment, calling jobs and the economy ‘the most immediate concern of most Americans.’”¹

With the unemployment rate at 9.1, new findings from Pew suggest Obama’s handling of jobs and the economy are causing him and his party to lose their base as there has been a significant shift in party identification among young white voters and those of low income.

POLLSTER: Pew Research Center

DATE: January-June 2011

SAMPLE: 8,546 Registered Voters (for 2011)

SOURCE: pollwatchdaily.com; http://people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/7-22-11%20Party%20ID%20commentary.pdf

¹ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-10/obama-pivots-to-job-creation-with-few-tools-left-in-kit-to-spur-growth.html

Another “Wave” Election?

Yesterday’s roll out of a new USA Today/Gallup poll has prompted a few headlines teasing a “wave” election in 2012.

Here are a few necessary things to consider.

First, while only 24% say Members of Congress deserve re-election, 56% say their “own representative deserves another term.”¹

Republicans are still ahead on the generic congressional ballot according to the average from Real Clear Politics.  Furthermore, the latest generic ballot test from Democracy Corps showed Independents preferring a Republican over a Democrat 48% to 36% respectively.

Second, presidential elections are historically a referendum on the President.  In other words, the outcome of the 2012 elections at all levels of government will be heavily dependent on Americans’ approval of Obama and his handling of the economy.  And, in the latest poll from CNN, Obama finds himself upside-down on both with a negative spread of -10 on job approval and -30 on the economy.

Third, “history is not in the Democrats’ favor: In 16 post-World War II presidential elections, the party of the winning presidential party has picked up an average of only about 13 House seats.”¹ 

Historically, wave elections are the result of an overstretched majority whereby one party holds an unbalanced number of seats traditionally held by the other party.  Currently, both Republicans and Democrats each hold 20 seats with a partisan voting index favoring the other party.

¹Susan Page; “Poll: Will anti-Congress mood cause another ‘wave’ election?”;http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2011-08-08-poll-gallup-election_n.htm?csp=ipmps

²Larry Sabato;“Channeling Truman? The Race for the House” http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/kdk2011071401/

Fox News: Obama and the Economy  

Recent polling from Fox News further confirms a state of economic despair as 58% of voters believe the economy is getting worse while only 26% say it’s getting better.

 In pondering these current economic conditions, 49% of voters say the Obama Administration has “made the economy worse,” including 50% of Independents.  Furthermore, Americans seem fed up with the blame game as 58% say it’s “unfair” to “continue blaming George W. Bush for the country’s economic problems.”

POLLSTER: Anderson Robbins Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News

DATE: Conducted 7/17-19/2011

SAMPLE: 904 Registered Voters; margin of error ±3.0

SOURCE: pollwatchdaily.com

http://www.foxnews.com/interactive/r/politics/2011/07/20/

Mellman Group/Ayres McHenry & Associates: 62% say U.S. does not have the strongest economy

The pessimistic attitudes regarding the state of our nation’s economy have reached new levels among Americans as less than a third of voters (32%) see the United States as having the “strongest economy in the world.”  Conversely, an eye-opening 62% believe the United States does not have “the strongest economy in the world,” and of that 62%, 39% would now award that title to China.

Moreover, this gloomy outlook treads heavy on Americans as a strong 67% believe maintaining the “strongest economy in the world” is “very important.”

POLLSTER: The Mellman Group/Ayres McHenry & Associates, Inc. for Alliance for American Manufacturing

DATE: Conducted 6/14-29/2011

SAMPLE: 1,202 Likely Voters; margin of error ±3.1 (Higher for Subgroups) 

SOURCE: http://americanmanufacturing.org

http://americanmanufacturing.org/files/AAM%20Poll%20Presentation%202011.pdf 

CNN Poll: 74% favor a Balanced Budget Amendment

Americans seem to find consensus on the idea of a balanced budget amendment as a strong 74% favor the proposal.  This gathers bipartisan support as a majority from all parties agrees.  

Furthermore, when asked if they found a balanced budget amendment necessary “to get the federal budget deficit under control,” 60% of Americans said it is “necessary,” again gathering agreement across party lines.

POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN

DATE: Conducted 7/18-20/2011

SAMPLE: 1,009 Adult Americans; margin of error ±3.0

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/07/21/rel11b.pdf

WaPo/ABC News: In Order to Reduce the National Debt…

POLLSTER: Washington Post/ABC News

DATE: Conducted 7/14-17/2011

SAMPLE: 1,001 Adults; margin of error ±3.5

SOURCE: PollWatchDaily.com

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_071711.html

Quinnipiac: 71% like Obama as a person, but what about his policies?

When asked how they feel about Barack Obama, an overwhelming 71% of voters say they like him “as a person.”  However, when asked to put aside their opinion of Obama as a person and assess his policies, 48% said they don’t like “most of Barack Obama’s policies.”  This includes 55% of Independents.

POLLSTER: Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

DATE: Conducted 7/5-11/2011

SAMPLE: 2,311 Registered Voters; margin of error ±2.0

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1624

About that Quinnipiac Poll: What you might have missed…

With everyone’s focus on the debt limit debate, Quinnipiac’s most recent survey posed some interesting questions regarding the role of taxes. 

Yet, despite strategically defining tax hikes as an “increase in taxes for the wealthy and corporations,” when asked whether these proposals to raise revenues would “impact the middle class or just the wealthy,” a strong 57% majority rejects that definition fearing Obama’s proposals will indeed affect the middle class, including 62% of Independents.

POLLSTER: Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.

DATE: Conducted 7/5-11/2011

SAMPLE: 2,311 Registered Voters; margin of error ±2.0

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1624

Kaiser Health Poll: Americans believe Medicare needs to be fixed

While Americans cannot come to an agreement on how to fix the Medicare program, there is a clear consensus things need to be changed as nearly 9 in 10 Americans (88%) would say the current Medicare program has some type of financial problem.   

Concerning Obamacare, 46% say they have an unfavorable opinion of the law while a close 42% say they view it favorably.  Furthermore, the public is slightly more negative than positive in their view of the law as more Americans than not think the country, seniors, the Medicare program, and their family are “worse off” under Obamacare.  

POLLSTER: Kaiser Health Tracking Poll

DATE: Conducted 6/9-13/2011

SAMPLE: 1,203 Adults; ±18; Margin of Error ±3.0

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8202-F.pdf

Government Priorities: Voters say Debt Reduction over Economic Stimulus

Given the choice of “[stimulating] the weak economy even if it cost more money” or “[reducing] the debt even if the economy is slower to recover, nearly 6 in 10 Americans (59%) say debt reduction should be Washington’s top priority.  Independents feel even stronger about addressing our debt as a full 61% agree.¹

“For the public, it’s all about the debt.”²

POLLSTER: McClatchy-Marist

DATE: Conducted 6/15-23/2011

SAMPLE: 1003 National Adults; 801 RVs; Margin of Error ±3.0/±3.5

SOURCE: TheHill.com

¹Poll: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/usapolls/US110615/Economy/Complete%20July%206th,%202011%20McClatchy-Marist%20Poll%20USA%20Poll%20Release%20and%20Tables.pdf

²Story: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/169891-poll-americans-want-debt-reduction-over-economic-stimulus

Democracy Corps & McClatchy-Marist: Obama Down; GOP Trends Positive

According to a new McClatchy-Marist poll, “President Barack Obama is in a fragile position as the 2012 campaign begins” as he hits a “new low” on his economic policies as only 37% approve.

The latest from Democracy Corps parallels the findings by McClatchy-Marist, which show a post bin-Laden bump that has virtually evaporated as Obama finds himself upside-down in both polls regarding his job approval as President of the United States.

Furthermore, Democracy Corps sheds light on positive trending for the GOP as Republicans hold a 3-point advantage over Democrats on the Generic Congressional ballot, leading 47% to 44% among likely voters. Moreover, voters say they trust Republicans over Democrats to have a better approach and do a better job with all three of the following issues: the economy, economy and jobs; spending and deficits.

POLLSTER: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps

DATE: Conducted 6/18-21/2011

SAMPLE: 1,000 LVs

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/110621-DCorps-FQ-Web.pdf

POLLSTER: McClatchy-Marist

DATE: Conducted 6/15-23/2011

SAMPLE: 1,003 Adults; 801 RVs; MoE ±3.0

SOURCE: The Sacramento Bee

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/06/28/3732004/poll-obama-economic-approval-hits.html#ixzz1QZq28nw3    

The Economy continues to “shake [the] nation’s confidence” 

The gloom surrounding our current economic conditions has only seemed to increase over the past months as eight in ten people (80%) now describe the nation’s economy as “poor.”¹

Forty-four percent say they are worse off than they were at the beginning of 2009 when Obama was inaugurated and a depressing 55% have lost faith in the American dream believing American children will have a lower standard of living than their parents do today.²

While President Obama’s favorability rating has consistently stayed right side up, this deep economic pessimism has run his approval ratings into the ground.  Obama has hit new highs in public disapproval of his handling of the economy and unemployment as a 59% majority disapproves of his management of the economy and an equal 59% disapprove of his handling of unemployment.¹

¹              POLLSTER: GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications for Associated Press

DATE: Conducted 6/16-20/2011

SAMPLE: 1,001 General Populations Respondents; 18±; margin of error ±4.1

SOURCE: Associated Press

Story:http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_AP_POLL_OBAMA_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-06-22-15-28-23

Full Poll: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK%20Poll%20June%202011%20Topline_Obama%20Economy.pdf

²              POLLSTER: Selzer & Co for Bloomberg News

DATE: Conducted 6/17-20/2011

SAMPLE: 1,000 US Adults; 18±; margin of error ±3.1

SOURCE: Bloomberg.com

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rLCZb_QxP4kE

About that PPP Poll: A Few Things You Should Know

First, while Public Policy Polling’s most recent poll shows Republicans and Democrats “neck and neck” on the 2012 generic Congressional ballot as Democrats lead by a narrow 43 to 42 percent margin, it’s rather fascinating they choose to test the generic ballot after questioning respondents on whether or not they thought “Sarah Palin’s interpretation of Paul Revere’s midnight ride [was] historically accurate or not.”¹ 

Though these numbers are nothing to overlook, before Democrats start bragging, it might also be worth noting “in the final poll before the 2010 elections, Democrats held a two-point lead on this question but [still] lost 63 seats in the House….”²

Second, Quinnipiac’s most recent survey of 1,946 registered voters paints a very different picture concerning congressional job approval as it shows Republicans at an advantage as the GOP sits at a net of +5 over Democrats on job ratings compared to PPP’s net of +8 for Democrats.³

Third, calling this national poll is a bit of a stretch as Public Policy only samples 520 voters, whereas a good sample size for a nationwide survey is normally somewhere between 800-1000 respondents.

¹              POLLSTER: Public Policy Polling 

DATE: Conducted 6/9-12/2011 (Released 6/16/2011)

SAMPLE: 520 American Voters; margin of error ±4.3

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_617.pdf

²              POLLSTER: Peter Hart and Bill McInturff for NBC/WSJ

DATE: Conducted 6/9-13/2011

SAMPLE: 1,000 Adults/836 RVs; margin of error ±3.1/3.4

SOURCE: National Journal

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/06/nbcwsj-poll-war.php

³              POLLSTER: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., for Quinnipiac University

DATE: Conducted 5/31-6/6/2011; (Released 6/9/11 @6:30 AM EDT)

SAMPLE: 1,946 Registered Voters; margin of error ±2.2

SOURCE: www.quinnipiac.edu

About that PPP Poll: A Few Things You Should Know

First, while Public Policy Polling’s most recent poll shows Republicans and Democrats “neck and neck” on the 2012 generic Congressional ballot as Democrats lead by a narrow 43 to 42 percent margin, it’s rather fascinating they choose to test the generic ballot after questioning respondents on whether or not they thought “Sarah Palin’s interpretation of Paul Revere’s midnight ride [was] historically accurate or not.”¹ 

Though these numbers are nothing to overlook, before Democrats start bragging, it might also be worth noting “in the final poll before the 2010 elections, Democrats held a two-point lead on this question but [still] lost 63 seats in the House….”²

Second, Quinnipiac’s most recent survey of 1,946 registered voters paints a very different picture concerning congressional job approval as it shows Republicans at an advantage as the GOP sits at a net of +5 over Democrats on job ratings compared to PPP’s net of +8 for Democrats.³

Third, calling this national poll is a bit of a stretch as Public Policy only samples 520 voters, whereas a good sample size for a nationwide survey is normally somewhere between 800-1000 respondents.

¹              POLLSTER: Public Policy Polling 

DATE: Conducted 6/9-12/2011 (Released 6/16/2011)

SAMPLE: 520 American Voters; margin of error ±4.3

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_617.pdf

²              POLLSTER: Peter Hart and Bill McInturff for NBC/WSJ

DATE: Conducted 6/9-13/2011

SAMPLE: 1,000 Adults/836 RVs; margin of error ±3.1/3.4

SOURCE: National Journal

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/06/nbcwsj-poll-war.php

³              POLLSTER: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., for Quinnipiac University

DATE: Conducted 5/31-6/6/2011; (Released 6/9/11 @6:30 AM EDT)

SAMPLE: 1,946 Registered Voters; margin of error ±2.2

SOURCE: www.quinnipiac.edu

National Journal Poll: Attitudes about Government & the Free Market Economy

POLLSTER: Allstate/National Journal Poll

DATE: Conducted 5/18-22/2011

SAMPLE: 1,000 Adults; 18±; margin of error ±3.1

SOURCE: Pollster.com

Most Helpful Institution:

Thirty-one percent say small businesses are the most helpful institutions in American society.  Only 14% believe government does the most to improve life for the American people, almost the same amount that says the same of big companies and corporations (12%).

Most Prefer Less Government Influence on the Economy:

Considering government’s proper role in the economy, 70% are weary of government’s involvement as 36% say government is not the solution to our current economic crisis but the problem, while another 34% say they believe government should play an “active role” but they’re not sure they “can trust the government to do this effectively.” 

Attitudes towards the Free Market:

Regarding their view of the free market economy, a 62% majority views it favorably, believing it “creates more opportunities than problems because it provides the most effective way to create economic growth and allow people to rise as far as their talent and hard work will take them.”  Only 32% have a negative opinion saying it “creates too much inequality and leaves too many people in poverty.”

http://www.allstate.com/Allstate/content/refresh-attachments/Heartland_IX_data.pdf

Quinnipiac University Poll: GOP Gaining Ground 

GOP Passes Democrats on Job Approval:

Republicans in Congress are at an advantage concerning Congressional job approval as the GOP sits at a net of +5 over Democrats on job ratings.

GOP Gains on Obama:

Concerning the economy and the deficit, voters are more trusting of the Republicans in Congress than President Obama to do a better job handling both as the GOP leads 43% to 41% on the economy and 46% to 39% on the deficit. 

For the GOP, this is a 6-point gain on the economy and a 2-point jump on the deficit since May 5 (post-bin Laden).  Obama, however, has lost ground on both, experiencing a 5-point drop on the economy and a 3-point drop on the deficit.

POLLSTER: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., for Quinnipiac University

DATE: Conducted 5/31-6/6/2011; (Released 6/9/11 @6:30 AM EDT)

SAMPLE: 1,946 Registered Voters; margin of error ±2.2

SOURCE: www.quinnipiac.edu

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1609

CNN Poll: 48% Fear another Great Depression

Obama’s post-bin Laden bump continues to fade as Americans are increasingly worried about the state of the economy.

An overwhelming 81% rate our current economic conditions as poor while a mere 19% are optimistic, saying the economy is in a good state.  Furthermore, a troubling 48% believe another Great Depression is likely to occur in the next year—“the highest that figure has ever reached.”

Heading towards the 2012 election for President, these economic fears will likely control votes as 51% of Americans say the economy is “Extremely Important” and another 41% see it as “very important.”

POLLSTER: Opinion Research Corporation for CNN

DATE: Conducted 6/3-7/2011; (Released 6/8/11 @11AM ET)

SAMPLE: 1,015 Adult Americans; margin of error ±3.0

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/06/08/cnn-opinion.research.corporation.poll.pdf

Today’s Washington Post/ABC News Poll: What You Might Have Missed 

With all the hype surrounding the decline of Obama’s post-bin Laden bump and increasing negative ratings regarding his handling of the economy and the deficit, you might have overlooked another valuable fact.

Not only is President Obama upside-down on the economy, but Republicans are gaining ground among Americans as the general public is putting more trust in Congressional Republicans to do a better job handling the economy while faith in Obama is slowly dissipating.

More specifically, “45 percent trust congressional Republicans over the president when it comes to dealing with the economy, an 11-point improvement for the GOP since March.”  Forty-two percent side with Obama.¹

POLLSTER: Langer Research Associates and TNS for ABC News/Washington Post

DATE: Conducted 6/2-5/2011; (Released 6/7/11)

SAMPLE: 1,002 Adults; margin of error ±3.5

SOURCE: WashingtonPost.com

¹Washington Post Article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-loses-bin-laden-bounce-romney-on-the-move-among-gop-contenders/2011/06/06/AGT5wiKH_story_1.html

Full Poll: http://langerresearch.com/uploads/1124a2_2012_Politics.pdf

Today’s CNN Poll: What You Might Have Missed:

Today’s CNN poll raves “majority gives thumbs down to Ryan plan” as the poll shows 58% disapproving of the GOP’s Medicare plan, while only 35% stand behind the Republican proposal.¹

However, this poll also showed Obama upside-down concerning his handling of Medicare as a 53% majority disapprove, including 56% of Independents.  Remember the $500 billion cut to Medicare in the President’s government takeover of health care?  Apparently, the American people do.

Furthermore, recent YouGov polls show Obama has been consistently net negative on his management of Medicare over the past month, capping his approval at a mere 36%, while a majority has steadily disapproved.²

¹     POLLSTER: Opinion Research Corp. for CNN   

DATE: Conducted 5/24-26/2011

SAMPLE: 1,007 Adults; margin of error ±3.0

SOURCE: CNN.com

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/06/01/cnn-poll-majority-gives-thumbs-down-to-ryan-plan/?hpt=po_t2; 

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/05/30/rel9d.pdf

²     POLLSTER: The Economist/YouGov 

DATE: Conducted 5/21-24/2011

SAMPLE: 1,000 General Population Respondents; margin of error ±3.9

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://cdn.yougov.com/downloads/releases/econ/20110521_econToplines.pdf

 Medicare Debate: What You Should Know:

Today’s Morning Score referenced a new poll conducted by The Herndon Alliance and Protect Your Care showing by an 8-point margin, “voters say they trust President Obama more than congressional Republicans on the issue of Medicare,” with 47% putting their trust in Obama and 39% putting their faith in the GOP.¹

However, when asked whether they approve or disapprove of President Obama’s handling of Medicare, 52% of Americans say they disapprove, including 36% who strongly disapprove according to the latest YouGov poll.²

Moreover, Obama has been consistently net negative on his management of Medicare over the past month, capping his approval at a mere 36%, while a majority has steadily disapproved.

¹Politico’s Morning Score: http://dyn.politico.com/members/forums/thread.cfm?catid=21&subcatid=69&threadid=5513812

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/06/poll-gop-medicare-ending-budget-bigger-political-fail-than-first-thought.php

²Economist poll conducted by YouGov; conducted 5/21-24/2011; sampled 1,000 General Population Respondents; margin of error ±3.9 http://cdn.yougov.com/downloads/releases/econ/20110521_econToplines.pdf

A Clean Debt Ceiling: Democrats Say Yes; People Say No:

“This week the House of Representatives will consider President Obama’s request to raise the federal debt limit without any preconditions related to limiting spending.”

While 9 in 10 voters stand firmly against a “clean” debt limit, 6 in 10 Democrats, that is, 114 Democratic Members or 59% “support a debt ceiling hike without any accompanying spending cuts.” 

Conversely, most voters believe “any increase in the federal debt limit should be tied to specific cuts in federal spending.” This includes 50% of Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans.

The people have spoken. Why aren’t the Democrats listening?

Sources: Resurgent Republic /America Action Forum National Survey 4/17-20/2011; Letter from 114 House Democrats to House Democratic leadership, 4/15/2011

http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/research/polling-analysis/voters-oppose-a-business-as-usual-debt-ceiling-hike

Data on the Debt Limit:

 68% Believe Debt & Economy are Directly Linked:

Most voters feel there is an exact correlation between our national debt and the economy, as 68% believe reducing the debt will directly contribute to improving the economy.¹

Only 12% Support a Clean Debt Limit Increase:

When thinking about the debt ceiling, a plurality of 45% prefers “raising the debt limit in exchange for spending cuts.”²  “Raising the debt limit without any unrelated amendments” has garnered little support, as a mere 12% prefer this option.²  Still, 38% prefer the debt limit not be raised at all.

“Disastrous” if Debt Limit Isn’t Raised:

A 56% majority also feels it will be “‘disastrous’ if Congress does NOT vote to raise the debt limit,” compared to 32% who believe there will be no serious consequences.³

¹      POLLSTER: Suffolk University 

DATE: Conducted 5/10-17/2011; (Released 5/18/11)

SAMPLE: 1,070 Likely U.S. Presidential Voters; margin of error ±3.0

SOURCE: Pollster.com

http://suffolk.edu/images/content/FINAL.Suffolk.University.National.Survey.Marginals.May.17.2011.pdf

²      POLLSTER: Conducted by The Tarrance Group for Public Notice 

DATE: Conducted 5/8-12/2011

³    POLLSTER: Tarrance Group & Lake Research Partners 

DATE: Conducted 5/8-12/2011; (Released 5/18/11)

SAMPLE: 1,000 Likely Voters; margin of error ±3.1

SOURCE: Politico.com

http://www.tarrance.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/GOP-analysis.pdf

Voter Pessimism and Economic Angst:

57% Worried about Another Economic Slump:

Voter sentiment remains negative as a 57% majority say they are “‘extremely’ (18%) or ‘very worried’ (39%) that the country will suffer another economic downturn in the near future that will have a negative impact on their family.”¹  

Furthermore, 46% of voters feel they are worse off than they were a year ago² and a considerable 74% “believe that the next generation will not be better off economically.” ¹

Tarrance Group/Lake Research: Battleground Poll:

POLLSTER: Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners  

DATE: Conducted 5/8-12/2011; (Released 5/16/11)

SAMPLE: 1,000 LVs; margin of error ±3.1

SOURCE: Politico

Republicans ahead on Jobs and the Deficit:

Considering the creation of jobs and controlling the deficit, the two most important issues at hand, voters believe Republicans in Congress will do a better job than Democrats in handling both by a margin of 45% to 40% and 51% to 32% respectively.

What you should know about today’s AP/GfK Poll… 

Today’s Associated Press-Gfk poll showed President Obama sitting at a comfortable 60% job approval rating.  It also showed a 52% majority approving of his handling of the economy.  Surprised?  So are we.

What other polls say:

Recent polls from Quinnipiac, Gallup, and NBC all showed Obama’s job approval rating around 52%.  Likewise, Quinnipiac and NBC also showed Obama’s approval ratings for his handling of the economy sitting at 38%, vastly different from AP’s 52%.

The Sample:

According to National Review’s Jonah Goldberg, “Obama’s approval rating is the highest it’s been in 2 years. But [AP] had to massage the numbers pretty vigorously to get that result.”

Quoting Ed Morrisey, “The Dem/Rep/Ind breakdown in this poll is 46/29/4, as AP assigned most of the leaners to the parties.  That is a 17-point gap, more than twice what was seen in the 2008 actual popular vote that elected Obama.”  Moreover, it’s about a 10 point difference than the averaged 7-point gap derived from most polls.  “When taking out the leaners, the split becomes — I’m not kidding — 35/18/27.  Oh, and another 20% ‘don’t know.’  It’s pretty easy to get Obama to 60% when Republicans are undersampled by almost half.”

As Hot Air stated, “and the award for the most ridiculous poll sampling goes to…”

POLLSTER: AP-GfK  

DATE: Conducted 5/5-9/2011; (Released 5/11/11)

SAMPLE: 1,001 Adults;18±; margin of error ±4.2; 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com

AP/Gfk: http://www.ap-gfkpoll.com/pdf/AP-GfK_Poll_May_Topline_051011_POLITICS.pdf

HotAir: http://hotair.com/archives/2011/05/11/and-the-award-for-the-most-ridiculous-poll-sampling-goes-to/

National Review: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/266949/obama-hits-60-approval-asterisk-jonah-goldberg

Today’s NYT/CBS News Poll: What you might have missed…

Job Approval Up, Economy Approval at All-Time Low:

After news of Osama bin Laden’s death surfaced Sunday night, this morning’s New York Times/CBS News poll showed the highest bump (11-points) thus far for Obama’s job approval ratings as President of the United States.

However, “many Republicans say the economy, and its languishing recovery, will be the key issue next year, not al Qaeda. If they're correct, the new poll numbers are less encouraging for Mr. Obama” as the same poll also showed Obama receiving “his lowest rating to date on the economy” as only 34% approve.

POLLSTER: New York Times/CBS News

DATE: Conducted 5/2-3/2011; (Released 5/4/11)

SAMPLE: 532 Adults; margin of error ±4

SOURCE: NYTimes.com

CBS News: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20059622-503544.html?tag=stack

New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/us/politics/05poll.html?emc=na

Obama’s Ratings Post Sunday’s Announcement: Job Approval, Economy, & Reelect

Obama’s Approval up to 56%:

As expected, today’s Washington Post/PEW poll showed a bump in President Obama’s approval rating after his announcement Sunday evening of Osama bin Laden’s death as 56% of Americans now approve of the way he is handling his job as President of the United States.  This is a 9-point jump from mid April when only 47% approved.  However, his ratings on the economy stay relatively the same as a majority (55%) still disapproves.

Resurgent Republic: All about the Debt Limit 

Debt Increase and Spending Cuts:

Concerning the hot topic of raising the debt limit, yesterday’s Resurgent Republic poll showed a plurality of 47% support raising the debt limit, “in exchange for substantial spending cuts and a commitment to reduce the deficit.”  Thirty-five percent “oppose raising the debt limit under any circumstances, while a mere 11% of voters said they support “raising the debt limit, without any preconditions.”

Debt Increase and Entitlement Programs:

Fifty-six percent said they are more likely to support the debt increase if it included “making changes to entitlement programs like Medicare and Medicaid” which made them “financially solvent in the future.”  If you add Social Security to the question, support for changes to entitlement programs drops to 52%.

Support for Increase if Bill Prevents Future Increases:

A plurality of 49% of voters said they are more likely to support an increase in the debt limit if “substantial spending cuts are included in the bill to prevent the country from having to increase the debt limit in the future.”

Specific Cuts and Balanced Budget Amendment:

Sixty-five percent agree that “any increase in the federal debt limit should be tied to specific cuts in federal spending, and a similar 61% say any increase “should be tied to a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution.”

POLLSTER: Ayres, McHenry & Associates for Resurgent Republic

DATE: Conducted 4/17-20/2011; (Released 4/26/11)

SAMPLE: 1,000 RVs; margin of error ±3.1

SOURCE: ResurgentRepublic.com

http://resurgentrepublic.com/research/polling-analysis/voters-want-spending-cuts-and-budget-reforms-tied-to-debt-limit-increase

NYT/CBS News: “Nation’s Mood at Lowest Level in Two Years” and more…

POLLSTER: NYT/CBS News

DATE: Conducted 4/15-20/2011; (Released 4/21/11)

SAMPLE: 1,224 Adults; margin of error ±3.0

SOURCE: NYTimes.com

Worst Pessimism in Two Years:

Quoted yesterday in The New York Times, “Americans are more pessimistic about the nation’s economic outlook and overall direction than they have been at any time since President Obama’s first two months in office” as an overwhelming 80% rate the condition of the national economy as bad, 36% of whom say it is “very bad.”  Furthermore, 39% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse while 38% say it is staying about the same, and only 23% feel it is getting better.

Obama is Losing the Middle Class:

Quoted this morning in The Fix, “…if Obama can win the middle class, he will almost certainly win a second term, since it comprises the bulk not only of all voters but of swing voters. Defining the middle class is not an easy proposition, but let’s for the sake of argument say that it includes household incomes ranging from $30,000 to $99,999.  Combined, those earning groups accounted for 55 percent of all voters in 2008, according to exit polls.  Obama’s strongest economic group within that range was those earning between $30,000 and $49,999, which he carried by 12 points over GOP Sen. John McCain.”

That was then, this is now:

In Daily Kos/SEIU’s weekly state of the nation poll released Monday, Obama’s unfavorable rating is 12 points higher among those households earning 30-50k than those earning less than $30,000 a year.  Furthermore, at 13 points higher than those bringing in under $30,000 annually, Obama’s disapproval rating is the highest among those earning 30-50k.

It seems President Obama is having a middle class problem.

POLLSTER: Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos/SEIU

DATE: Conducted 4/14-17/2011; (Released 4/18/11)

SAMPLE: 1,003 RVs; margin of error ±3.1

SOURCE: Pollster.com

The Fix: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/obamas-middle-class-message-and-why-its-smart/2011/04/19/AF1f07AE_blog.html

Daily Kos/SEIU: http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/4/14

Today’s Washington Post/ABC Poll: “Economy is Battering Obama’s Ratings”

POLLSTER: TNS for Washington Post/ABC News

DATE: Conducted 4/14-17/2011; (Released 4/19/11)

SAMPLE: 1,001 Adults; margin of error ±3.5

SOURCE: WashingtonPost.com

About this morning’s CNN poll…

Republicans or Obama?

Today’s CNN poll showed most Americans prefer Obama’s approach over Republicans in Congress when it comes to “dealing with the tough choices involved both in cutting programs to reduce the budget and still maintaining needed federal programs” by a 48% to 43% margin.  However, the same poll also showed 47% of Independents prefer Republicans in Congress’ approach to handling the budget while only 39% prefer Obama’s.

POLLSTER: Opinion Research Corporation for CNN

DATE: Conducted 4/9-10/2011; (Released 4/13/11 @ 6AM)

SAMPLE: 824 RVs; margin of error ±3.5

SOURCE: CNN.com

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/04/12/rel6d.pdf

Three Things You Should Know about that PPP Poll… 

Today’s Public Policy Polling poll ranted Americans have a “dim view of Congress,” specifically “GOP leadership.”  However, there are a few things you should know about this poll before you make judgments accordingly.

Sample Size:

First, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, surveyed 532 registered voters, a good sample for a statewide survey, but not large enough for a national survey where the sample size is normally somewhere between 800-1000.

Field Dates:

The field dates for this poll were April 7^th to April 10^th which means that some part of this survey was conducted before a deal had been reached between Republicans in Congress and Obama while the other part was conducted after that budget agreement was officially announced.

Wording:

In the summary, PPP states that 43% of voters think “John Boehner and company are doing a worse job than Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats did when they were in charge,” while only 36% think the GOP leaders are doing a better job.  However, if you look at the wording of the actual question, it says nothing about John Boehner or Nancy Pelosi.  Given Pelosi’s incredible unpopularity, one can only wonder what the results would have been by including her name in the question.

POLLSTER: Public Policy Polling

DATE: Conducted 4/7-10/2011; (Released 4/12/11)

SAMPLE: 532 RVs; margin of error ±4.3

SOURCE: publicpolicypolling.com

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0412513.pdf

CNN Poll: Last Week’s Budget Agreement

POLLSTER: Opinion Research Corporation for CNN

DATE: Conducted 4/9-10/2011; (Released 4/11/11 @12PM EST)

SAMPLE: 824 U.S. Adults; margin of error ±3.5

SOURCE: CNN.com

Budget Agreement:

Regarding the budget agreement reached last week between Republicans and Democrats in Congress and President Obama to avert government shutdown, 58% of Americans approve while 38% disapprove of the agreement achieved.

Who’s Responsible?

When asked who they believed to be more responsible for the budget agreement, a plurality of Americans said Obama/Democrats in Congress deserved more credit than Republicans in Congress by a 48% to 35% margin, including most Independents (42%).

Approval/Disapproval of Budget Negotiations:

Most Americans were pleased with the way President Obama handled budget negotiations last week as 54% approved compared with 45% who disapproved.  Looking to Congress, majority of Americans disapproved of the way the Republican leaders in Congress and Democratic leaders in Congress handled the negotiations, disapproving of both by an equal 54%.  Majority of Independents however, disapproved of all three.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/04/11/rel6a.pdf

Pew Research Center & Fox News: Obama’s Ratings Slip

POLLSTER: Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Pew Research Center

DATE: Conducted 3/30-4/3/2011; (Released 4/7/11)

SAMPLE: 1,507 Adults; 18±; margin of error ±3.5; 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: pollwatchdaily.com

Obama Ratings:

Down 4-points from last month when 51% approved, Obama currently holds a narrow 2-point advantage in Pew’s most recent survey as 47% of Americans approve of his job performance as President of the United States while a close 45% disapprove.  Though most approve of his job performance as President, Obama sits at minus 17 concerning his handling of the economy with a majority of 56% disapproving.

Highest Dissatisfaction since Inauguration:

American Satisfaction:

The Pew Research Center’s most recent poll spoke strongly of public discontentment as an overwhelming 73% of Americans say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country today.  This is the highest percentage since Obama’s inauguration in January of 2009 and matches the rating back in 1995.

POLLSTER: Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

DATE: Conducted 3/8-14/2011

SAMPLE: 1,525 Adults; 18±; margin of error ±3; 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: http://people-press.org/files/2011/03/717-topline.pdf

The Hill: GOP More Reasonable:

POLLSTER: Pulse Opinion Research, LLC for The Hill

DATE: Conducted 3/31/2011; (Released 4/4/11)

SAMPLE: 1,000 LVs; margin of error ±3

SOURCE: The Hill

Spending Cut Negotiations:

A new poll in today’s The Hill showed majority of likely voters believe Republicans have been more reasonable than Democrats in the negotiations over spending cuts as 41% say the GOP has been “more reasonable,” compared with only 29% who feel Democrats have been more sensible.

http://thehill.com/polls/153517-the-hill-poll-public-sees-gop-more-reasonable-in-budget-debate

Rasmussen Reports: Spending Cuts & Government Shutdown:

POLLSTER: Pulse Opinion Research, LLC for Rasmussen Reports

DATE: Conducted 3/30-31/2011; (Released 4/4/11)

SAMPLE: 1,000 LVs; margin of error ±3; 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: RasmussenReports.com

Republican Proposed Cuts:

Deeper cuts are wanted as most voters (53%) believe the Republican proposed spending cuts will have little impact on overall levels of spending and deficits.  Only 26% feel they will significantly reduce federal spending and deficits.

Government Shutdown:

Considering a possible government shutdown, most would rather see deeper cuts as 57% of voters believe it is more important to make further cuts in government spending while 31%  say it is more crucial to avoid a partial government shutdown.    

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/march_2011/53_say_even_gop_spending_cuts_won_t_dent_the_deficit

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/march_2011/53_say_even_gop_spending_cuts_won_t_dent_the_deficit

Rasmussen Reports: Generic Congressional Ballot

POLLSTER: Pulse Opinion Research, LLC for Rasmussen Reports

DATE: Conducted 3/21-27/2011; (released 3/28/11)

SAMPLE: 3,500 LVs; margin of error ±2; 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: RasmussenReports.com

Generic Congressional Ballot:

Republicans currently hold a four-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot as 43% of likely voters say they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district, while 39% say they would vote for the Democrat.  Among men, the generic Republican leads by 10-points, while the generic Republican and Democrat run almost even among women.  Considering voters not affiliated with a particular party, Republicans hold a 12-point advantage.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

Quinnipiac University Poll: Obama in the Red

POLLSTER: Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D. for Quinnipiac University

DATE: Conducted 3/22-28/2011; (released 3/30/11)

SAMPLE: 2,069 RVs; margin of error ±2.0

SOURCE: Quinnipiac.edu